With all the disinformation being spread, it's easy to lump a THINKER like me with the Mayan Calender literalists, Bible literalists, Koran literalists, stereotypical survivalists, whiney bitch liberals, infinite-growth economists, or other DOGMATIC WACKOS.
That couldn't be any further from the TRUTH. I couldn't CARE LESS about those commonly held fears.
My concerns for our collective future have nothing to do with ancient prophecies, astrology, religion, or some variation on god's revenge. None of us has any control over solar flares, planetary magnetism, super-volcanoes, meteorites, etc. If one of these commonly feared things were to take us down, I could die happily knowing it wasn't our fault.
After all,
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What gets my goat is our collective failure to address glaringly obvious and inevitably catastrophic problems we do have control over.
These problems aren't new or overly-complicated. We've had solid knowledge confirming their existence for decades. Hell, these problems are so apparent a clued-in person can hardly escape their awareness... and being aware of them is very painful. It's no wonder most people spend very little time THINKING about the big picture.
Fortunately, - over the last FIVE DECADES - numerous wise people have addressed these problems and offered brilliant solutions.
Sadly, the rest of us have largely ignored these problems as we ignore so many other inconvenient and uncomfortable truths about OURSELVES.
Here in the USA, the ROOTS of our catastrophic problems are simple and few:
1) Unrealistic economic models,
and
2) Absurdly wasteful ways of life. Please let me explain...
"Business is Business and Business must grow."
The road to INFINITE GROWTH is paved with short-sighted development, wasteful resource consumption, and the buying and selling of a whole lot of unnecessary shit.
INFINITE growth is impossible on a FINITE planet.
The more we develop, the more we destroy.
The wealthier we become, the more we waste.
The faster we move, the more we pollute.
The stronger we git, the more we suffer from arrogance.
Most importantly, the deeper we dig, the less we have left.
No sane human denies that Our Nation is entirely dependent upon absurd quantities of fossil fuels. The same TRUTH applies to all industrialized nations. WE ARE ALL using up massive amounts of irreplaceable energy.
This energy MUST flow perpetually from reliable sources.
If supply can't meet demand, things get ugly. Shortages result, prices go up, economies flounder, conflicts intensify, "quality of life" drops, and the poorest people suffer most. Worst case scenario international conflicts escalate which further limits available supply and perpetuates human suffering.
In a modern war - economic or escalated - one of the most effective strategies is to cut off your enemy's energy supply. History shows this tactic's success countless times.
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| Not a baby food factory. |
Many a city overrun by BLOCKADE.
Many a nation crushed through EMBARGO.
Many a corporation crippled by SUPPLY CHAIN SABOTAGE.
History's most dramatic reminder of this tactic's success is the Nazi defeat in WWII. A crucial turning point came when well orchestrated Allied bombing cut Axis oil supplies by up to 80%.
After that, the Nazis could barely afford to fly their planes, drive their cars, heat their homes, or run their country, let alone fight a WORLD WAR.
GAME OVER FOR HITLER.
The obvious targets in a MODERN RESOURCE WAR - which could quickly escalate into WWIII - would be oil wells, refineries, pipelines, ports, tanker ships, mines, railways, etc. Here in the US, much of our energy comes from far flung points on the Earth, offering ample opportunity for enemies to fuck with our shit.
Clearly things CANNOT stay the same.
Concern over the obvious issue of oil dependency is the reason why many of our most enlightened scientific and political leaders have been SCREAMING - for decades - ...
"WE NEED TO GET OFF FOREIGN OIL."
Even the MORONS have addressed the importance of decreasing our dependence. In fact, all of our last 8 PRESIDENTS have publicly acknowledged the issue. Notice that though they made ridiculous claims to the contrary, our dependence on foreign oil has increased steadily. Check it:
President Richard Nixon (in 1974 with 36.1% of oil from foreign sources): “At the end of this decade, in the year 1980, the United States will not be dependent on any other country for the energy we need.”
President Gerald Ford (in 1975 with 36.1% of oil from foreign sources): “We must reduce oil imports by one million barrels per day by the end of this year and by two million barrels per day by the end of 1977.”
President Jimmy Carter (1979, 40.5% of oil from foreign sources): “Beginning this moment, this nation will never use more foreign oil than we did in 1977 – never.”
President Ronald Reagan (1981, 43.6% of oil from foreign sources): “While conservation is worthy in itself, the best answer is to try to make us independent of outside sources to the greatest extent possible for our energy.”
President George Bush (1992, 47.2% of oil from foreign sources): “When our administration developed our national energy strategy, three principles guided our policy: reducing our dependence on foreign oil,…”
President Bill Clinton (1995, 49.8% of oil from foreign sources): “The nation’s growing reliance on imports of oil… threatens the nation’s security… [we] will continue efforts to…enhance domestic energy production.”
President George W. Bush (2006, 65.5% of oil from foreign sources): “Breakthroughs…will help us reach another great goal: to replace more than 75 percent of our oil imports from the Middle East by 2025.”
President Barack Obama (2009, 66.2% of oil from foreign sources) “It will be the policy of my administration to reverse our dependence on foreign oil while building a new energy economy that will create millions of jobs.”
But We haven't changed anything. We haven't even made a legitimate effort.
In fact - and this is what really SCARES ME - the brunt of Humanity is DOZING OFF as we sink beyond oil's global production peak. On the downslope of this predictable bell curve the supply of oil available at any future point in time is guaranteed to be less than we currently extract.
If you need proof, history provides a very clear example of the bell curve oil production follows. All we have to do is look at US domestic oil production because that PEAKED in 1971.
We're also offered rather conclusive proof that GOOD POPULAR MUSIC is a thing of the PAST. There's no denying that. ;-)
Here's an interesting graph that lists important countries' oil peaks and factors that into the bigger picture of overall global supply. Each individual country's DOCUMENTED peak year is listed after it's name. Note that Alaska is listed separately from the United States, and that it's peak production year came way back in 1989.
So yeah, US Oil Production peaked long ago and GLOBAL Oil Production is currently at or beyond it's peak. There is absolutely NO DOUBT that the amount of oil available at any given future point in time is going to DECREASE both RAPIDLY and SIGNIFICANTLY. No matter what we do, no matter what technology we develop, no matter how badly we trash the planet trying to suck every last drop of retrievable oil from it, we are guaranteed shortages of our most crucial resource. That's just the way it is here on a FINITE PLANET.
I'm sorry to burst your precious little bubble of HOPE, but TRUTH is more important.
Meanwhile, global demand for energy is SKYROCKETING as rampantly developing countries - most notably China - mimic our American example and embrace an energy-intensive, CONSUMERISM-based society.
Notice that Chinese energy consumption DOUBLED in the last DECADE.
Now, returning to OIL in particular, let's look at Chinese consumption for the recent past.
Between 1980 and 2006, Chinese oil consumption QUADRUPLED!
If we look at future projections, we witness the TRAGIC DISCONNECT between PLANNING and REALITY which is at the root of our CURRENT DEPRESSION and could very well catapult humanity into WORLD WAR III.
Despite the fact that we are now at or beyond PEAK OIL, the US Energy Information Administration is putting out blatantly impossible projections of future oil consumption. SInce we are already using the maximum amount of oil that we can extract from Planet Earth at any given point in time, it is UTTERLY IMPOSSIBLE for any country to increase their oil consumption beyond current levels without TAKING IT FROM SOMEONE ELSE.
Take your pick.
An honest projection out to 2030 predicts global oil consumption at LESS THAN HALF of current levels. In the near future, every nation is going to feel a big pinch in their energy flow. Instead of voluntarily changing lifestyles to embrace the new reality, a more likely scenario involves more of the same fighting for OIL.
OIL supply goes DOWN. CONFLICTS over oil go UP. Guaranteed.
This situation poses a potentially catastrophic dilemma. Around the world, ~7 billion people not only need OIL to eat, but growing numbers of them are also firm believers in the inherently flawed philosophy of INFINITE GROWTH and the WASTEFUL LIVING prompted by CONSUMERISM.
Our media machine has been pumping out FLASHY BULLSHIT for decades, and the rest of the world has bought into the tragic concept of INFINITE GROWTH under the guise of the GOOD LIFE, aka THE AMERICAN DREAM.
Here in the HOMELAND, we're now starting to suffer for a century of serving as such a BAD EXAMPLE. What goes around comes around, and this one is guaranteed to bite us all in the ass.
It's frightening to speculate what happens once demand drastically eclipses supply, but many people have looked to the future and offer LOGICAL predictions. On this site, OILFREEFUN, I will now start offering my own predictions along with suggestions of what we can do as individuals to minimize this catastrophic trend while preparing personally for the worst.
Crazy? Perhaps... but nowhere near as crazy as INFINITE GROWTH ECONOMICS or the ABSURDLY WASTEFUL LIVES which most of out countrymen have "chosen".
If you're still reading, I'm sure many of you are skeptical and pondering how alternatives to oil factor into the big picture. My own personal reasoning is this...
If some other source could meet the need that oil currently fills for us, do you think we'd be fighting perpetually to maintain our supply of foreign oil? If there wasn't oil in the Middle East, none of us would care remotely what happened there. This war began a long time ago and will continue for a long time into the future. It is being fought entirely because of OIL.
The fact that we've fought so long and so hard for oil provides ME with all the proof I need to BELIEVE that nothing can realistically replace it. If there was any other viable option to "Keep America Rolling", I'm confident that our economic and political leaders would have embraced it long ago. After all, Our Presidents have been soap boxing energy independence for 40 YEARS.
Sadly, THERE IS NO OTHER VIABLE ENERGY SOURCE which is why we get a bunch of BULLSHIT regarding national energy policy.
Coal and Natural Gas can be turned into liquid fuels but the process is very costly and wasteful. Also, reserves of these fossil fuels are nowhere near sufficient to do what they do for us now while replacing the energy deficit from decreasing oil availability.
Ethanol offers a false hope because it takes huge expanses of farmland and massive amounts of water and fossil fuel energy to produce. If anything, ethanol production exacerbates our current predicament, contributes to climate change, artificially inflates global food prices, and takes food from the mouths of people who are already starving. You don't have to take my word for it:
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| Time Magazine, April 7th. 2008 |
Solar, Wind, Hydroelectric, Tidal, and Geothermal power are great, but there is absolutely NO POSSIBILITY of these sources coming anywhere close to meeting our current energy needs. Right now, the US gets 6% of it's energy from renewable and "clean" energy sources.
Unless we somehow come up with TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS WORTH OF NEW ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE almost OVERNIGHT, there is no way clean energy is going to fill the growing void left by decreasing oil supplies. No other energy source comes close to providing what oil does and no energy source ever will.
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| Source: NPR, 2009 |
If you did your homework, you know that...
THE ONLY TRUE SUBSTITUTE FOR OIL IS A DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT LIFESTYLE.
SUSTAINABILITY gets plenty of lip service, but most people don't even understand what "sustainable" means. Almost all "green" initiatives are short-sighted loads of crap.
SUSTAINABILITY gets plenty of lip service, but most people don't even understand what "sustainable" means. Almost all "green" initiatives are short-sighted loads of crap.
If you haven't personally felt the pinch yet, remember that in a global perspective we in the United States are still relatively rich. That said, even here in Teton County, Wyoming - the wealthiest county in the United States - many people struggle to find jobs, pay bills, and get by. Meanwhile, the big buckaroos who've settled here for cushy tax purposes have got more money than they could ever spend.
The NEW DEPRESSION is going to get MUCH WORSE and the gap between rich and poor will continue to grow to UNPRECEDENTED LEVELS.
INCREASING INEQUALITY coupled with RESOURCE SCARCITY and UNAVOIDABLE INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT at a time when the PARADIGM OF INFINITE GROWTH HAS NO OTHER OPTION BUT TO SHIFT is the recipe for MASSIVE GLOBAL CHANGE.
While this change certainly won't be pretty, it doesn't have to be deadly. Keep reading and I'll do my best to help keep you at least a few steps ahead of the HERD.
PEACE.