Many people -- myself included --believe that governments and business interests are already using geoengineering technologies as a form of weather warfare. Studying the history or technological development and military adoption of new technologies reveals a precedent of new technologies (for example, nuclear weapons) being developed and implemented without the public's knowledge. ETC GROUP makes note of this trend and the very real possibility of regional geoengineering devolving into global weather warfare:
"Regional geoengineering adds another layer of complexity. In order to have effective regional interventions, each region must assume that the other regions remain static or, at least, that their emissions are predictable. Further, implementing regions must be persuasive that their interventions will not have spill-over effects or be interpreted as acts of aggression.
"Regional geoengineering adds another layer of complexity. In order to have effective regional interventions, each region must assume that the other regions remain static or, at least, that their emissions are predictable. Further, implementing regions must be persuasive that their interventions will not have spill-over effects or be interpreted as acts of aggression.
But, there is another substantial difference with regional geoengineering. Global geoengineering would morally and politically require global governance. The United Nations would have to understand the proposal and accept the consequences. The likelihood of the UN’s 193 members accepting this is vanishingly minuscule. The US recently voted against signing the Treaty on the Rights of the Disabled because it was seen as a threat to US sovereignty, despite the fact that the Treaty was modeled on the US’s own legislation, the Americans with Disabilities Act. Does anyone really think the US is going to allow a UN Treaty governing geoengineering deployment?
Regional geoengineering sidesteps the UN’s moral and legal governance obligations. A “coalition of the willing” such as USA, Canada, China and Russia could construct an independent Polar zone geoengineering strategy. If they are lucky, they could reduce or delay their own climate “emergencies” without addressing the crises their industrialization has caused the rest of the world. If they are wrong, they could unilaterally devastate the planet.
But, for example, if North America hoists an umbrella over that continent, what’s to prevent China from doing the same… Or India responding to China…or from Brazil protecting its climate? The world’s winds and weather could ricochet between umbrellas like a pinball.
Would governments act so unilaterally? The “Hot War” of climate change is not unlike the “Cold War” that dominated global politics from 1945 to 1991. During that period, countries such as the United States, Russia, China, UK, France, India, Israel and Pakistan felt morally-qualified to unilaterally jeopardize planetary security risking nuclear war and exploding more than 450 atmospheric nuclear devices (mostly above international waters) that were ultimately proven to jeopardize the health and well-being of not only their own citizens but of the world.
The political/scientific complex initially denied the dangers of atmospheric nuclear testing and then tried to underplay the dangers until they were forced into – decades later – a nuclear test ban treaty.
So, the question is whether the “Hot Worriers” of today have learned from the “Cold Warriors” of yesterday. The answer is “No.” At this level of complexity, our intelligence is still artificial. It’s time for a geoengineering test ban."
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The Artificial Intelligence of Geoengineering Governance_Communiqué # 109 416.16 KB
The Artificial Intelligence of Geoengineering
Chaos theory proposes that a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil could cause a hurricane in Texas. Complexity theory compounds the chaos by adding the quantum-like effects of, for example, genome changes in the butterfly to the conflictions of supercomputer models. Now, geoengineers want to multiply the complexity with politics. The result is an extreme form of artificial intelligence.
Gaia is complicated. From stratospheric currents to undersea rivers – and from plankton to palm tree emissions and sequestrations – quantifying, qualifying and calibrating planetary systems is at least as challenging as understanding genes or neurons. Despite decades of modeling, we are no more likely to predict next month’s best picnic day than we are to anticipate the proclivities of our DNA or to trace a memory in our cranium. Frustratingly, we have learned to map and manipulate genomes, geographies and memories, but we can’t control the consequences.
The distinction between accurate manipulation and accurate modeling is vital. Scientists and governments do need a much better understanding of what we are doing to ourselves. Reducing GHG emissions is complicated. Not reducing emissions is more complicated. Moving perhaps a billion people from coastal plains to higher ground will be complicated. Responding to extreme hydro-thermal events (floods, droughts, hurricanes, etc.) will be incredibly difficult. Sorting out correctly which crops can grow where around the planet will be hugely critical and hugely complex. That all of these decisions will also be political compounds the problem. Every political opinion will claim “sound science” as its basis. As we have seen through Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban and Doha, truth and transparency are already the victims of irresponsible climate change negotiations. Now, geoengineers are saying that they can help governments address climate change by manipulating planetary systems. This increases the complexity by several orders of magnitude and renders the politics of climate governance still more opaque.
To read the full Communiqué, please download the pdf.
The Artificial Intelligence of Geoengineering Governance_Communiqué # 109 416.16 KB
CHECK OUT THE FULL ARTICLE...
The Artificial Intelligence of Geoengineering Governance_Communiqué # 109 416.16 KBThe Artificial Intelligence of Geoengineering
Chaos theory proposes that a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil could cause a hurricane in Texas. Complexity theory compounds the chaos by adding the quantum-like effects of, for example, genome changes in the butterfly to the conflictions of supercomputer models. Now, geoengineers want to multiply the complexity with politics. The result is an extreme form of artificial intelligence.
Gaia is complicated. From stratospheric currents to undersea rivers – and from plankton to palm tree emissions and sequestrations – quantifying, qualifying and calibrating planetary systems is at least as challenging as understanding genes or neurons. Despite decades of modeling, we are no more likely to predict next month’s best picnic day than we are to anticipate the proclivities of our DNA or to trace a memory in our cranium. Frustratingly, we have learned to map and manipulate genomes, geographies and memories, but we can’t control the consequences.
The distinction between accurate manipulation and accurate modeling is vital. Scientists and governments do need a much better understanding of what we are doing to ourselves. Reducing GHG emissions is complicated. Not reducing emissions is more complicated. Moving perhaps a billion people from coastal plains to higher ground will be complicated. Responding to extreme hydro-thermal events (floods, droughts, hurricanes, etc.) will be incredibly difficult. Sorting out correctly which crops can grow where around the planet will be hugely critical and hugely complex. That all of these decisions will also be political compounds the problem. Every political opinion will claim “sound science” as its basis. As we have seen through Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban and Doha, truth and transparency are already the victims of irresponsible climate change negotiations. Now, geoengineers are saying that they can help governments address climate change by manipulating planetary systems. This increases the complexity by several orders of magnitude and renders the politics of climate governance still more opaque.
To read the full Communiqué, please download the pdf.
The Artificial Intelligence of Geoengineering Governance_Communiqué # 109 416.16 KB